On November 20, 2025, political commentator Nelson Havi dropped a bombshell: someone will soon file a court case to strip Oburu Odinga of his title as leader of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). It’s not just gossip — it’s a constitutional time bomb. Havi, speaking as a concerned Kenyan, didn’t mince words. He said the party’s recent leadership transition, sealed on November 13 in Mombasa, violated ODM’s own constitution. And if you think this is just an internal squabble, think again. The fallout could derail ODM’s entire 2027 election strategy.
How a Swearing-In Became a Scandal
Oburu Odinga, the elder brother of the late Raila Amolo Odinga and sitting Senator for Siaya County, was installed as ODM leader during the party’s anniversary event. No election. No delegates. Just a handshake from the National Governing Council (NGC). That’s the problem. According to Article 12(3) of ODM’s constitution, any leadership vacancy must be filled by a vote at the National Delegates Convention (NDC). Not a closed-door meeting. Not a council decree. A full, transparent, member-driven convention.Enter Caleb Amisi, MP for Saboti Constituency. He didn’t just criticize — he issued a legal warning. "If your nomination certificate is signed by Oburu, it can be challenged in court," he said. "The constitution is clear. The deputy leaders were sidelined. Why? Even the Kenyan Constitution says when the president is away, the deputy steps in. Why not here?" His point was sharp: if the rules apply to the presidency, why not to a political party?
The Family Fracture
Then there’s Winnie Auma Odinga, Raila’s youngest daughter and an EALA MP. She didn’t hold back. In a fiery statement, she accused "a section of ODM leaders" of holding secret meetings in "boardrooms and bedrooms" to negotiate the party’s future — possibly even selling it out. She demanded an immediate NDC to decide whether ODM should stay aligned with President William Samoei Ruto’s administration or go independent. Her words struck a nerve. Many rank-and-file members feel the party’s direction is being decided by a handful of insiders, not the grassroots.Oburu Odinga dismissed her call for an NDC on November 19, telling reporters: "Those who want to break ODM, it will never happen in my hands." But he offered a curious olive branch — a private family discussion. "We’ll resolve this at the family level," he said, as reported by Tuko.co.ke. That line — "family level" — didn’t sit well. To many, it sounded like a refusal to open the process to the broader party. And in a movement built on mass mobilization, that’s a dangerous signal.
Who’s Defending Oburu?
Not everyone is against him. Gladys Nyasuna Wanga, ODM National Chairperson and Governor of Homa Bay County, stood by the NGC. "The NGC is the executive arm of the NDC," she argued. "Convening an NDC is a huge exercise. Now that the NGC has ratified these officers, we are formally in office." Her logic? Efficiency. The party, she implied, can’t afford to wait months for a convention when the 2027 elections are looming.But that argument rings hollow to constitutionalists. The NGC was created to manage affairs between NDCs — not replace them. And ODM’s constitution doesn’t grant it the power to appoint a new chairperson. It’s like saying a company’s board can fire the CEO and appoint their cousin without shareholder approval. Legally? Unsound. Politically? Toxic.
History Is Watching
This isn’t the first time ODM has fractured over succession. Video clips circulating on social media recall the 2007-2008 split, when Kalonzo Musyoka walked away with the party’s registration papers, leaving Raila Odinga temporarily partyless. Former Minister Henry Kosgey has since confirmed the drama. The fear now is that Oburu’s installation could trigger another exodus — this time from younger, reform-minded members who see ODM as losing its soul.Meanwhile, Havi’s YouTube warning video — titled "Havi warns of looming legal battle over Oburu Odinga’s ODM leadership" — hit 1,600 views in just 12 hours. That’s not just attention. That’s mobilization. And in Kenya’s political landscape, viral outrage often translates to legal petitions.
What’s at Stake?
ODM is not just any party. It’s the vehicle that propelled Raila Odinga to near-presidency three times. It’s the coalition glue that held the Azimio alliance together. Now, it’s at risk of becoming a footnote — not because of external rivals, but because of internal chaos.Oburu insists ODM is "targeting power," not just opposing it. He talks about grassroots consolidation, national structures, and strategic alliances. But none of that matters if the party’s leadership is legally invalid. A court ruling against him could invalidate every nomination he’s signed, cripple fundraising, and scatter the party’s 2027 campaign infrastructure.
The clock is ticking. Legal papers are likely already being drafted. And if a judge rules the NGC overstepped, Oburu Odinga’s leadership could be nullified overnight. The party would be back to square one — without a clear leader, without a plan, and without the unity it desperately needs.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is the National Delegates Convention (NDC) so important to ODM’s constitution?
The NDC is ODM’s supreme decision-making body, composed of delegates elected from every constituency. Article 12(3) mandates that leadership changes — including chairperson appointments — must occur only through a vote at the NDC. This ensures broad member participation and prevents elite capture. The NGC, by contrast, is a smaller executive body meant to manage day-to-day affairs between conventions, not override them.
What happens to nomination certificates signed by Oburu Odinga if he’s ruled illegitimate?
If a court finds Oburu Odinga’s appointment unconstitutional, any nomination papers he signed for ODM candidates in 2027 could be invalidated. This would force candidates to reapply under a new, legally recognized leader — potentially delaying campaign launches, confusing voters, and opening the door for rival parties to exploit the chaos. Legal experts say this could trigger a cascade of electoral challenges.
Why did Winnie Odinga oppose Oburu’s leadership so strongly?
Winnie Auma Odinga represents the younger, reformist wing of ODM that fears the party is being steered back into a power-sharing arrangement with President Ruto without public mandate. She sees Oburu’s appointment as a top-down power grab that ignores the party’s base. Her call for an NDC isn’t just procedural — it’s ideological. She wants ODM to decide its future democratically, not behind closed doors.
Could this split ODM permanently?
Possibly. The party is already divided between those who want to remain aligned with Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza coalition and those who advocate full independence. Oburu’s unilateral appointment has deepened that rift. If legal action succeeds, loyalists may rally behind him, while dissenters could form a new faction or join another party. The 2027 elections could see ODM fragmented — something its founders never intended.
What’s the timeline for a potential court case?
Legal experts say a petition could be filed within weeks, especially after the December 2025 party congress. Petitions against party leadership typically move quickly in Kenya’s election courts, especially if there’s clear constitutional violation. A ruling could come as early as February 2026, well before the 2027 nomination window opens. Delaying the case risks rendering it moot — which is why critics are pushing for urgency.
How is the public reacting to this dispute?
Social media is ablaze. Hashtags like #ODMConstitution and #OburuNotLeader are trending in Nairobi, Kisumu, and Mombasa. Grassroots activists are organizing town halls to demand an NDC. Even some ODM MPs who initially supported Oburu are quietly urging restraint. The public sees this not just as a party fight — but as a test of whether Kenya’s major parties still respect their own rules, or just power.
